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webmaster: Sven F. Crone
Centre for Forecasting
Lancaster University
Management School
Lancaster LA1 4YF
United Kingdom
Tel +44.1524.592991
Fax +44.1524.844885
eMail sven dot crone (at)
neural-forecasting dot com
The ISF'06 ANNEX Neural Network Forecasting Competition
Prof Rob Wilby, Drs Bob Abrahart, Asaad Shamseldin, Linda See, Christian Dawson and Sven Crone would like to welcome you to the ISF06 ANNEXG forecasting competition . The intention of ISF06 ANNEXG is to initiate a project to evaluate the effectiveness of artificial neural networks in rainfall-runoff modelling/flow forecasting.
Our intention is to provide a standard rainfall-runoff data set (available below) that will be used by all participants to create a number of neural network models. We then hope to integrate the model results to examine the skill of individual members, as well as the ensemble forecast(s) for the catchment.
All the data you send back to us will be anonymous. In other words, when the model statistics are calculated and published, there will be no indication as to who has produced the most accurate model (although parameters will be published so you should be able to work out which model(s) is your own!).
Following on from the 2001 / 2002 experiments (see below) a new data set is provided which is coded at a 6 hourly time interval. The data sets and rules can be downloaded directly from this page below. Model results will be evaluated using statistics calculated by the HydroTest web site at: www.hydrotest.org.uk.
Data Files and 'Rules'
The 'rules' are available as a Word
document from
here
.
All the data are presented in Excel
format and can be download as a single zipped file from
here
.
Alternatively, you can download the individual files below.
The calibration data is split into two files;
Train1.xls
and
Train2.xls
.
The test data is available as
Test.xls
.
A replication website is located at http://www-staff.lboro.ac.uk/~cocwd/Annexg/annexg.htm
Timing
Please submit an abstract to the
ISF06 conference website by the deadline of 28 February 2006
(passed) including a
reference to the ISF06 ANNEXG in the abstract.
Please return all results to Christian Dawson by 28 April 2006
extended to: 30 November 2006!
ANNEXG 2001 / 2002
The first ANNEXG experiments were undertaken during 2001 / 2002. This exercise involved the dissemination of a benchmark catchment data set to seventeen neurohydrologists world wide. Each was given the freedom to develop up to two ANN models for t+1 and t+3 days ahead forecasting in an unknown catchment. An additional motivation for this exercise was to investigate the potential of ensemble forecasting to improve forecast accuracy and, taking this work further, using ensembles to provide confidence in modelling performance.
The results were presented at the 8th BHS National Hydrology Symposium at the University of Birmingham, UK (8 - 11 September 2002). You can download a copy of the paper from here.
You can access the original benchmark data set as a zip file here.
You can view the 'rules' that the participants had to follow from here.
Contact
If you have any comments / questions / queries please feel free to contact Christian Dawson at : C.W.Dawson1@lboro.ac.uk